Home / Royal Mail / Coronavirus UK: Death toll jumps to 10, with 134 infected

Coronavirus UK: Death toll jumps to 10, with 134 infected

The UK’s coronavirus death toll has today jumped to 10 after health chiefs announced 140 more patients had been infected in Britain’s biggest daily increase yet – taking the infection toll to almost 600. 

NHS officials revealed both patients who died had underlying conditions. One was a woman in her sixties and was in hospital in Essex, the other was an 89-year-old who passed away in London.

The huge leap in the number of patients struck down by the life-threatening illness means the UK’s outbreak is now 40 times bigger than it was a fortnight ago – when warnings of a crisis were first peddled after health officials admitted the infection was spreading on British soil. 

It comes after Boris Johnson today faced warnings the coronavirus crisis could run out of control unless he takes drastic action immediately after Scotland, Ireland and the US stepped up their response.

The PM today chaired an emergency Cobra committee where the UK’s tactics will shift from ‘containing’ the killer disease to merely ‘delaying’ its inevitable spread – it is expected to peak in the next fortnight.

Under a drastic ‘battle plan’ laid out by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, schools could be closed and employees told to work from home. Thousands of NHS operations could even be cancelled, if the outbreak worsens. 

Slowing the progress will be crucial to avoid the already struggling NHS being overwhelmed, as has happened in Italy – where all 60million people in the country have been placed in an unprecedented lockdown.

The FTSE 100 Index has suffered its biggest one-day fall since 1987 after plummeting 10.9 per cent as investors were rattled by travel restrictions imposed by Donald Trump in an attempt to halt the coronavirus, which the World Health Organization yesterday declared a pandemic. 

The US President extraordinarily announced last night he was ordering an immediate shut-down of all travel from Europe to America to try to stop the spread of coronavirus in the US. 

British Chancellor Rishi Sunak yesterday unveiled a massive £30billion plan to try and contain the crisis, while insisting the government will do ‘everything it can’ to keep the country ‘healthy and financially secure’.  

How the UK’s coronavirus ‘battle plan’ could unfold

CONTAIN 

Testing individuals reporting symptoms or returning from infected areas, isolating those who have coronavirus.

Tracing how they contracted the virus, and everyone they might have come into contact with while infectious.

Powers have been taken to force people into quarantine if they refuse to comply voluntarily. 

DELAY 

Ministers are expected to order wider testing to assess prevalence in the community. 

People could be advised to work from home if possible, anyone with a cold will be asked to self-isolate, and vulnerable people urged to stay indoors.

Sick pay provision has been bolstered to make the self-employed and low-paid workers more likely to comply. 

Further up the so-called ‘ladder’ of response options, schools could be closed, and sports and public gatherings banned. 

Ministers say the scientific advice advice does not yet support that – although Ireland is closing schools, and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says she wants a ban on gatherings of more than 500 people.

The government has also rejected the US approach of banning travellers from mainland Europe for the moment. 

MITIGATE 

If the outbreak runs out of control, the NHS could cancel all non-urgent activity to focus on treating those affected.

In an extreme situation, troops could be deployed to shore up the police and essential public services.

Recently-retired doctors and nurses would be brought back to help plug gaps in the NHS, with many health workers expected to be infected along with regular members of the public. 

On another day of frantic activity by politicians and health experts around the globe: 

  • Irish PM Leo Varadkar has declared that schools, colleges and childcare facilities are to close for two weeks;
  • Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon today declared that she is ‘minded’ to cancel mass gatherings of over 500 people from the start of next week to avoid them sucking up resources of police and health workers;
  • The US Congress is shutting the Capitol, House and Senate office buildings to public until April 1 in reaction to coronavirus; 
  • The FTSE 100 fell by £143billion today as investors were rattled by US travel restrictions imposed by in an attempt to halt the pandemic; 
  • The World Health Organization warned that the travel ban announced by Mr Trump will do little to help combat coronavirus in the UK and could backfire by making people complacent; 
  • UK Chancellor Mr Sunak said he made ‘no apology’ for turning on the spending taps to counter the effects of the virus on the UK economy and society; 
  • A Cabinet minister is awaiting the results of a coronavirus test today, with four other MPs in quarantine after health minister Nadine Dorries became the first politician to be diagnosed with the disease; 
  • Tube and transport systems were quieter than usual as the public preempted the expected advice from government on restricting social contact;
  • There are claims every football game in England could be held behind closed doors with live streams for ticket-holders; 
  • The London School of Economics has cancelled lectures and tutorials and confirmed it will teach students online;
  • Sittings in Parliament could be scaled back and the authorities are considering closing to visitors amid fears of spread on the estate. 

NHS England issued the below statements on behalf of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, and Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust – both in London – regarding two patients in their hospitals, who have died and had tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19).

A spokesperson for Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust said: ‘We can confirm that, sadly, an 89-year-old patient who was very unwell with underlying health conditions has passed away at Charing Cross Hospital.

‘The patient had tested positive for coronavirus. Our thoughts and condolences are with the patient’s family.’ 

Tony Chambers, interim chief executive of Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust, said: ‘We can confirm that a patient, who was in her sixties, and who tested positive for COVID-19 has sadly died at Queen’s Hospital. She had been very unwell with significant other health conditions.

‘Our thoughts and condolences are with the patient’s family at what is undoubtedly a very distressing time. We ask that the family’s privacy is respected.’  

Face masks have been increasingly in evidence on the streets of London (pictured) as fears over coronavirus spread

Face masks have been increasingly in evidence on the streets of London (pictured) as fears over coronavirus spread

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP BANS TRAVELLERS FROM EUROPE TO THE US  

US President Donald Trump last night ordered an immediate shut-down of all travel from Europe.

Speaking hours after world health officials declared the coronavirus a pandemic, he repeatedly defended his own actions and vowed the nation would prevail in countering the virus and getting treatment on the market.

‘We will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days,’ Trump announced, in a speech from the Oval Office to the nation. 

‘The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight,’ he said. 

The move was so sudden the acting Homeland Security secretary said he would issue full guidance on how to carry it out within 48 hours.

The White House said the travel restrictions would apply to foreign nationals who have visited 26 European countries – but excluding the UK and Ireland – in the past 14 days. 

It will not apply to US citizens, their ‘immediate’ family members or legal permanent residents. But confusion remained over how exactly the rules would apply and in what time zone the deadline would be introduced.  

Britain also announced two deaths today after elderly patients yesterday succumbed to the disease at the George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust and the Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust in the Midlands. 

It comes as the Prime Minister today faced warnings the coronavirus crisis could run out of control unless he takes drastic action immediately. But the UK’s tactics look increasingly out of step with other countries. 

No10 has dismissed suggestions it will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning it would close all schools and colleges – although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates. 

And by not banning mass gatherings, experts have warned Mr Johnson risks an explosion of cases of the life-threatening illness in the next fortnight. 

Italy – the centre of Europe’s unfolding crisis – saw a dramatic rise in the number of patients infected before they took out unprecedented measures to lock down the entire country last week.

In the first sign of splits within the UK, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon today declared that she is ‘minded’ to cancel mass gatherings of over 500 people from the start of next week. 

The government has also made clear it will not follow Donald Trump’s dramatic overnight move of closing the borders to travellers from mainland Europe.

Instead Mr Johnson seems determined to take a limited response, asking those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.

Former Cabinet minister Rory Stewart this afternoon accused the PM of ‘smug insular complacency’, warning that without quick action there could be 100,000 cases in the UK within the next 24 days.

‘This is at risk of becoming an example of smug insular complacency – refusing to pay any attention to what any other country is doing or the successful public health approach in Asia,’ the London Mayor hopeful said. ‘We should show some humility, learn from others and act now.’

Oval Office address: Donald Trump finally addressed the nation about the coronavirus crisis from the White House on Wednesday and banned all travel to Europe

Leo Varadkar (pictured in Washington today) has declared schools, colleges and childcare facilities are to close for two weeks

Leo Varadkar (pictured in Washington today) has declared schools, colleges and childcare facilities are to close for two weeks

Liz Truss

Matt Hancock

Trade Secretary Liz Truss (left) and Health Secretary Matt Hancock (right) were among ministers at the Cobra meeting today

Professor Mohamed Abu Hilal, writing from Brescia, north Italy, warned officials must prepare more beds, doctors and nurses in light of the fiasco happening in Italy

Professor Mohamed Abu Hilal, writing from Brescia, north Italy, warned officials must prepare more beds, doctors and nurses in light of the fiasco happening in Italy

Italy has put full scale lock downs in place, with court action and fines threatened for people breaking imposed curfews. Pictured, sanitary workers disinfecting the streets in Naples

Italy has put full scale lock downs in place, with court action and fines threatened for people breaking imposed curfews. Pictured, sanitary workers disinfecting the streets in Naples

FORMER NHS DOCTOR TRAPPED IN ITALY BEGS UK GOVERNMENT TO SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING 

A former NHS doctor trapped in coronavirus-hit Italy has begged the UK Government to ‘shut down everything’ in the fight against the killer infection.

Professor Mohamed Abu Hilal, who now works in Brescia, north Italy, urged officials to prepare more beds, doctors and nurses in the NHS in light of the fiasco happening in the worst hit country of Europe.

He warned it’s not only the elderly who are dying of COVID-19, although figures suggest they are the most vulnerable.

Italy put full-scale lockdowns nationwide in place on Monday, with court action and fines threatened for people breaking imposed curfews.

Schools, cafes, hairdressers and restaurants have been closed as 60million residents are told to stay in their homes in ‘social distancing’ measures in order to curb the escalating crisis there.

Mounting pressure has built on the Government to move quickly to impose similar rules because it’s feared the UK is heading the same direction as Italy, where 12,462 cases and 827 deaths have been confirmed.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will today hold an emergency meeting and is expected to move the ‘battle plan’ into the next stage.

It follows a surge of 85 in the UK cases yesterday. Now, a total of 460 people have tested positive for COVID-19 nationwide, an eight-fold increase in a single week.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who yesterday unveiled a huge £30billion Budget package to ‘vaccinate’ the economy from the impact of coronavirus, today said the UK was not following the US example.

‘The advice we are getting is that there is not evidence that interventions like closing borders or travel bans are going to have a material effect on the spread of the infections,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. ‘That is why we have taken the decisions that we have.’ 

Britain’s chief medics have today put the NHS on war footing by telling all doctors and staff they may need to be drafted into the frontline to fight coronavirus. 

In a dramatic call to action, tens of thousands of medics have been told they could be mobilised to work in ‘unfamiliar’ areas of hospitals. 

NHS staff have been urged to be ‘flexible in terms of their approach and the expectations of routine requirements’, amid fears the UK’s growing crisis could be exacerbated by shortages in already understaffed hospitals. 

The chief medical officers for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland told staff to be prepared, warning the NHS will be put under ‘extreme pressure’.  

Overwhelmed medics have already warned the health service is ‘not coping well’, warning that hospitals are ‘getting swamped’ because of the life-threatening illness. 

It comes as a former NHS doctor who is trapped in coronavirus-hit Italy begged the UK Government to ‘shut down everything’ in the fight against the killer infection.

Professor Mohamed Abu Hilal, who now works in Brescia, north Italy, urged officials to prepare more beds, doctors and nurses in the NHS in light of the fiasco happening in the worst hit country of Europe.

He warned it’s not only the elderly who are dying of COVID-19, although figures suggest they are the most vulnerable.

An 89-year-old patient who was 'very unwell' has died at Charing Cross Hospital in London

A woman in her sixties died with coronavirus at Queen's Hospital in Barking, London, yesterday

Two more UK coronavirus deaths have been announced today, both in London – an 89-year-old died at Charing Cross Hospital (left) and a woman in her sixties succumbed to the illness at Queen’s Hospital in Barking

Italy put full-scale lockdowns nationwide in place on Monday, with court action and fines threatened for people breaking imposed curfews.

Schools, cafes, hairdressers and restaurants have been closed as 60million residents are told to stay in their homes in ‘social distancing’ measures in order to curb the escalating crisis there.

Mounting pressure has built on the Government to move quickly to impose similar rules because it’s feared the UK is heading the same direction as Italy, where 12,462 cases and 827 deaths have been confirmed.

The UK’s financial markets took another massive hit today and the FTSE 100 index had £143billion wiped off its value after the World Health Organization’s upgrade of the coronavirus outbreak to a global pandemic.

The index of Britain’s leading companies was trading down 559 points or 9.5 per cent at 5,317 following another week of falls prompted by the spread of the infection.

Within moments of the FTSE opening this morning, it sank more than 300 points, to levels not seen for eight years, before the falls continued throughout the day.

They hit a low after markets opened down in the US and the European Central Bank unveiled a coronavirus stimulus package, but kept interest rates steady.

More than £520billion has been wiped from the index since February 21 when panic set in among investors about the spread of the infection – a fall of 28 per cent.

The drop means the index is technically in a ‘bear market’ where the value of shares has fallen by more than 20 per cent.

It comes after the US President suspended travel from Europe to the US for 30 days, responding to mounting pressure to take action against the outbreak.

The falls are also despite the Bank of England cutting interest rates from 0.75 per cent to 0.25 per cent and Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiling a £30billion Budget plan.  

Revealed: How phase two of the UK’s coronavirus battle plan to delay the outbreak could affect YOU

Daily life could soon change for millions of Britons as Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing growing pressure to move to the second phase of the Government’s coronavirus action plan – ‘Delay’.

At a briefing this morning the PM said he would not yet ban gatherings or close schools but the dramatic move is looming on the horizon as the UK’s outbreak continues to spiral.

However, the UK’s tactics look increasingly out of step with other countries after Ireland, which has just 43 confirmed cases, today moved to close all schools. 

At least 460 people have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in Britain already and eight people have died. 

Moving to the Delay phase of the battle would mean the start of social distancing measures – efforts to keep people apart and stop the virus spreading inside the country. 

Here’s what the dramatic escalation, which could be the Government’s next step, could mean:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, pictured in Parliament yesterday, is under mounting pressure to take more drastic steps and close schools and urge home-working to stop the coronavirus

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, pictured in Parliament yesterday, is under mounting pressure to take more drastic steps and close schools and urge home-working to stop the coronavirus

The Government's battle plan is divided into four stages – Boris Johnson is expected to advance from stage one to stage two today

The Government’s battle plan is divided into four stages – Boris Johnson is expected to advance from stage one to stage two today

Anyone who gets sick should stay at home

Self-isolation, which has become a buzzword since the outbreak began, could be extended to anybody who falls ill, even if they don’t think they have coronavirus.

The Government’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, said earlier this week: ‘We are now very close to the time, probably within the next 10 to 14 days… where we should move to a situation where we say ”everybody who has even minor respiratory tract infections or a fever, should be self-isolating for seven days afterwards”.’

The advice could apply to people who have colds, flu or chest infections, regardless of whether they have travelled to coronavirus-hit areas.

Worst-case scenario predictions suggested up to one in five people could be off work at the peak of the epidemic.

Companies will be urged to tell staff to work from home if they can (stock image)

Companies will be urged to tell staff to work from home if they can (stock image)

Staff will be told to work from home 

People with office jobs will increasingly be asked to work from home to stop them catching the coronavirus at the office.

The Government is keen for companies to help their employees work remotely, to reduce the amount of people who are out in public and travelling around. Firms may also be urged to stagger shift patterns to reduce crowds in rush hour.

Companies which cannot operate remotely – such as construction sites, maintenance workers, supermarkets and drivers – will have to continue to work as normal, but workforces may end up being reduced or projects put on hold.

No more football matches shown in pubs

Pubs could be banned from showing football matches or other big sporting events on TV, to stop crowds gathering in their bars.

All matches are expected to be played behind closed doors under new plans to combat the spread of the virus.

According to The Times, the current season will not be postponed but games will be contested with no supporters present. All Premier League ticket holders for individual clashes will be able to stream coverage of matches in their homes instead.

With the response to the pandemic moving imminently, no games will be shown in pubs to avoid congestion of people, and Premier League fixtures will not be shown live in the Saturday 3pm slot.

Broadcasters are believed to be permitted to screen more than one top flight game during the lunchtime and tea-time slots – and this would apply across the weekend and on Mondays.

Social distancing measures – attempting to keep people between three and six feet apart from one another – have already been brought in in Italy (pictured, a queue outside a supermarket in Palermo) and could soon be on the streets of Britain

Social distancing measures – attempting to keep people between three and six feet apart from one another – have already been brought in in Italy (pictured, a queue outside a supermarket in Palermo) and could soon be on the streets of Britain

Walk or cycle to work to avoid cramped public transport

Public Health England said people should cycle or walk to work if they can.

It said public transport services will continue to run but there may be fewer services and routes could be cut or cancelled in specific areas if there are bad local outbreaks.

Close proximity of passengers on trains and buses makes them likely places for the virus to spread from commuters who don’t know they’re ill, especially in cities.

The coronavirus can spread from person-to-person if people are within six feet (1.8m) of one another, according to the US Centers of Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), so people

It can also live on hard surfaces like buttons and handrails for up to 72 hours, during which time it remains infectious if someone touches it then touches their face.

One economist from the University of Warwick, Roger Farmer, told MailOnline he had already stopped using the London Underground and that he expects other people will do the same to avoid getting ill.

‘I would expect potentially fewer trains and bus services and suspect people will stop using them,’ he said.

Schools and universities could close and students be told to work at home (Pictured, Bonnygate Primary School in Essex closed last week because of a coronavirus case)

Schools and universities could close and students be told to work at home (Pictured, Bonnygate Primary School in Essex closed last week because of a coronavirus case)

Schools and universities could close

The Government’s coronavirus action plan admits that it could close schools and universities if the outbreak in the UK gets bad.

Officials have so far been reluctant to admit they will do this and appear to be very against the idea. Public Health England wrote in a blog: ‘Closing schools can be disruptive for both children and parents so this is something we would need to consider very carefully.’

The coronavirus does not seem to be infecting children anywhere near as much as it affects adults, for reasons that scientists don’t yet understand.

If schools were to be closed, pupils may be set work to do at home or given online lessons through video tutorials or special school networks. Children in other countries such as Italy are still taking part in hours of school lessons even from isolation.

Concerts, cinemas and football matches could be off-limits 

If outbreaks get bad in particular areas people might be stopped from holding any events which would draw large crowds – this has happened across the whole of China and Italy.

Concerts, theatre shows, cinemas, sports games and museums could be off limits.

Football matches are expected to be played with no crowds present and fans will have to watch the games on television at home.

Watching them in pubs could also be banned because it would attract large crowds of people.

Concerts could be cancelled to stop large crowds gathering

Football matches will be held behind closed doors and people will have to watch on TV

Events which attract large crowds like concerts (left) and football matches (right) could be cancelled to stop people spreading the virus 

WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ‘DELAY’ AND ‘CONTAIN’ PHASES OF THE ACTION PLAN?

The Government will today consider upgrading its efforts to stop the coronavirus.

It is using a four-point scale taken from an official ‘coronavirus action plan’ which was launched by Prime Minister Boris Johnson at 10 Downing Street last week. 

Efforts are currently in the first phase, named ‘contain’, but could escalate to ‘delay’.

Future efforts in the Delay phase could include school closures, encouraging people to work from home and cancelling large public gatherings such as the London Marathon.

The efforts would be added on to a public information campaign which launched last week and is urging people to wash their hands more often – increasing engagement with the public is an element of the Delay phase which was started early.

And efforts from the Contain phase, such as isolating people confirmed to have the virus and updating travel and health advice, will be continued. 

Bars and restaurants could be forced to space out customers

Although not in British Government guidance, Italian authorities have required that bars, restaurants and cafes slash their opening hours and make sure customers can be kept far apart.

Establishments are only allowed to open between 8am and 6pm, a government decree said, and only if a distance of at least three feet (1m) could be kept between each customer.

Similar rules could apply to other busy places such as supermarkets, gyms, spas, community centres and hotels.

Old people could be ‘cocooned’ in care home lockdowns

Hundreds of thousands of old people – who are most at risk of dying if they catch the coronavirus – could be shut in the care homes they live in, with visitors not allowed in case they bring the coronavirus in.

The ‘cocoon’ strategy was confirmed by Government officials and would rely on an army of volunteers to help care for the vulnerable population.

Scientific adviser to Number 10, Dr David Halpern, told the BBC the idea was that ‘by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity has been achieved in the rest of the population.’

Herd immunity is when so many people in a population have already had a virus – and become immune to it as a result – that the illness stops spreading because there are not enough potential victims for it to infect and move through.

Doctors could be brought out of retirement to help overloaded hospitals (stock image)

Doctors could be brought out of retirement to help overloaded hospitals (stock image)

Plans in motion to bring in retired doctors and the military to help 

Retired doctors and nurses are expected to be drafted back in to help overloaded hospitals if the outbreak becomes too big to handles.

Plans could start to be drawn up soon to legally allow these qualified medical workers to return to the frontline and treat patients. If an outbreak like Italy’s happens in the UK, or if huge numbers of people start to be diagnosed in relatively small areas, already-stretched hospitals could come under immense strain.

Extra medical staff will be needed to pick up the work left by staff who will inevitably be off ill or in quarantine themselves, and to cope with surging patient numbers.

The military could also be drafted in later in the outbreak to help enforce movement restrictions or quarantines if the situation gets that bad.  

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS?

Someone who is infected with the coronavirus can spread it with just a simple cough or a sneeze, scientists say.

More than 4,500 people with the virus are now confirmed to have died and more than 125,000 have been infected. Here’s what we know so far:

What is the coronavirus? 

A coronavirus is a type of virus which can cause illness in animals and people. Viruses break into cells inside their host and use them to reproduce itself and disrupt the body’s normal functions. Coronaviruses are named after the Latin word ‘corona’, which means crown, because they are encased by a spiked shell which resembles a royal crown.

The coronavirus from Wuhan is one which has never been seen before this outbreak. It has been named SARS-CoV-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. The name stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2.

Experts say the bug, which has killed around one in 50 patients since the outbreak began in December, is a ‘sister’ of the SARS illness which hit China in 2002, so has been named after it.

The disease that the virus causes has been named COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019.

Dr Helena Maier, from the Pirbright Institute, said: ‘Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that infect a wide range of different species including humans, cattle, pigs, chickens, dogs, cats and wild animals. 

‘Until this new coronavirus was identified, there were only six different coronaviruses known to infect humans. Four of these cause a mild common cold-type illness, but since 2002 there has been the emergence of two new coronaviruses that can infect humans and result in more severe disease (Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses). 

‘Coronaviruses are known to be able to occasionally jump from one species to another and that is what happened in the case of SARS, MERS and the new coronavirus. The animal origin of the new coronavirus is not yet known.’ 

The first human cases were publicly reported from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where approximately 11million people live, after medics first started publicly reporting infections on December 31.

By January 8, 59 suspected cases had been reported and seven people were in critical condition. Tests were developed for the new virus and recorded cases started to surge.

The first person died that week and, by January 16, two were dead and 41 cases were confirmed. The next day, scientists predicted that 1,700 people had become infected, possibly up to 7,000.

Just a week after that, there had been more than 800 confirmed cases and those same scientists estimated that some 4,000 – possibly 9,700 – were infected in Wuhan alone. By that point, 26 people had died. 

By January 27, more than 2,800 people were confirmed to have been infected, 81 had died, and estimates of the total number of cases ranged from 100,000 to 350,000 in Wuhan alone.

By January 29, the number of deaths had risen to 132 and cases were in excess of 6,000.  

By February 5, there were more than 24,000 cases and 492 deaths.

By February 11, this had risen to more than 43,000 cases and 1,000 deaths. 

A change in the way cases are confirmed on February 13 – doctors decided to start using lung scans as a formal diagnosis, as well as laboratory tests – caused a spike in the number of cases, to more than 60,000 and to 1,369 deaths.

By February 25, around 80,000 people had been infected and some 2,700 had died. February 25 was the first day in the outbreak when fewer cases were diagnosed within China than in the rest of the world. 

Where does the virus come from?

According to scientists, the virus almost certainly came from bats. Coronaviruses in general tend to originate in animals – the similar SARS and MERS viruses are believed to have originated in civet cats and camels, respectively.

The first cases of COVID-19 came from people visiting or working in a live animal market in Wuhan, which has since been closed down for investigation.

Although the market is officially a seafood market, other dead and living animals were being sold there, including wolf cubs, salamanders, snakes, peacocks, porcupines and camel meat. 

A study by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, published in February 2020 in the scientific journal Nature, found that the genetic make-up virus samples found in patients in China is 96 per cent identical to a coronavirus they found in bats.

However, there were not many bats at the market so scientists say it was likely there was an animal which acted as a middle-man, contracting it from a bat before then transmitting it to a human. It has not yet been confirmed what type of animal this was.

Dr Michael Skinner, a virologist at Imperial College London, was not involved with the research but said: ‘The discovery definitely places the origin of nCoV in bats in China.

‘We still do not know whether another species served as an intermediate host to amplify the virus, and possibly even to bring it to the market, nor what species that host might have been.’  

So far the fatalities are quite low. Why are health experts so worried about it? 

Experts say the international community is concerned about the virus because so little is known about it and it appears to be spreading quickly.

It is similar to SARS, which infected 8,000 people and killed nearly 800 in an outbreak in Asia in 2003, in that it is a type of coronavirus which infects humans’ lungs. It is less deadly than SARS, however, which killed around one in 10 people, compared to approximately one in 50 for COVID-19.

Another reason for concern is that nobody has any immunity to the virus because they’ve never encountered it before. This means it may be able to cause more damage than viruses we come across often, like the flu or common cold.

Speaking at a briefing in January, Oxford University professor, Dr Peter Horby, said: ‘Novel viruses can spread much faster through the population than viruses which circulate all the time because we have no immunity to them.

‘Most seasonal flu viruses have a case fatality rate of less than one in 1,000 people. Here we’re talking about a virus where we don’t understand fully the severity spectrum but it’s possible the case fatality rate could be as high as two per cent.’

If the death rate is truly two per cent, that means two out of every 100 patients who get it will die. 

‘My feeling is it’s lower,’ Dr Horby added. ‘We’re probably missing this iceberg of milder cases. But that’s the current circumstance we’re in.

‘Two per cent case fatality rate is comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 so it is a significant concern globally.’

How does the virus spread?

The illness can spread between people just through coughs and sneezes, making it an extremely contagious infection. And it may also spread even before someone has symptoms.

It is believed to travel in the saliva and even through water in the eyes, therefore close contact, kissing, and sharing cutlery or utensils are all risky. It can also live on surfaces, such as plastic and steel, for up to 72 hours, meaning people can catch it by touching contaminated surfaces.

Originally, people were thought to be catching it from a live animal market in Wuhan city. But cases soon began to emerge in people who had never been there, which forced medics to realise it was spreading from person to person. 

What does the virus do to you? What are the symptoms?

Once someone has caught the COVID-19 virus it may take between two and 14 days, or even longer, for them to show any symptoms – but they may still be contagious during this time.

If and when they do become ill, typical signs include a runny nose, a cough, sore throat and a fever (high temperature). The vast majority of patients will recover from these without any issues, and many will need no medical help at all.

In a small group of patients, who seem mainly to be the elderly or those with long-term illnesses, it can lead to pneumonia. Pneumonia is an infection in which the insides of the lungs swell up and fill with fluid. It makes it increasingly difficult to breathe and, if left untreated, can be fatal and suffocate people.

Figures are showing that young children do not seem to be particularly badly affected by the virus, which they say is peculiar considering their susceptibility to flu, but it is not clear why. 

What have genetic tests revealed about the virus? 

Scientists in China have recorded the genetic sequences of around 19 strains of the virus and released them to experts working around the world. 

This allows others to study them, develop tests and potentially look into treating the illness they cause.   

Examinations have revealed the coronavirus did not change much – changing is known as mutating – much during the early stages of its spread.

However, the director-general of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gao Fu, said the virus was mutating and adapting as it spread through people.

This means efforts to study the virus and to potentially control it may be made extra difficult because the virus might look different every time scientists analyse it.   

More study may be able to reveal whether the virus first infected a small number of people then change and spread from them, or whether there were various versions of the virus coming from animals which have developed separately.

How dangerous is the virus?  

The virus has a death rate of around two per cent. This is a similar death rate to the Spanish Flu outbreak which, in 1918, went on to kill around 50million people.

Experts have been conflicted since the beginning of the outbreak about whether the true number of people who are infected is significantly higher than the official numbers of recorded cases. Some people are expected to have such mild symptoms that they never even realise they are ill unless they’re tested, so only the more serious cases get discovered, making the death toll seem higher than it really is.

However, an investigation into government surveillance in China said it had found no reason to believe this was true.

Dr Bruce Aylward, a World Health Organization official who went on a mission to China, said there was no evidence that figures were only showing the tip of the iceberg, and said recording appeared to be accurate, Stat News reported.

Can the virus be cured? 

The COVID-19 virus cannot be cured and it is proving difficult to contain.

Antibiotics do not work against viruses, so they are out of the question. Antiviral drugs can work, but the process of understanding a virus then developing and producing drugs to treat it would take years and huge amounts of money.

No vaccine exists for the coronavirus yet and it’s not likely one will be developed in time to be of any use in this outbreak, for similar reasons to the above.

The National Institutes of Health in the US, and Baylor University in Waco, Texas, say they are working on a vaccine based on what they know about coronaviruses in general, using information from the SARS outbreak. But this may take a year or more to develop, according to Pharmaceutical Technology.

Currently, governments and health authorities are working to contain the virus and to care for patients who are sick and stop them infecting other people.

People who catch the illness are being quarantined in hospitals, where their symptoms can be treated and they will be away from the uninfected public.

And airports around the world are putting in place screening measures such as having doctors on-site, taking people’s temperatures to check for fevers and using thermal screening to spot those who might be ill (infection causes a raised temperature).

However, it can take weeks for symptoms to appear, so there is only a small likelihood that patients will be spotted up in an airport.

Is this outbreak an epidemic or a pandemic?   

The outbreak was declared a pandemic on March 11. A pandemic is defined by the World Health Organization as the ‘worldwide spread of a new disease’. 

Previously, the UN agency said most cases outside of Hubei had been ‘spillover’ from the epicentre, so the disease wasn’t actually spreading actively around the world.


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