Striking gathering — Sweet-talking Sunak — It’s snow joke – POLITICO

Good Monday morning. This is Annabelle Dickson. I’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday morning too.  

It’s snow joke: SW1 Twitter is awash with snow pics after the white stuff arrived in London last night. Here’s a video of Big Ben bonging in the snow to start your day. (H/t the Sun’s Kate Ferguson.)

DRIVING THE DAY

STRIKING GATHERING: Ministers and officials will this afternoon head to the famous Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms — aka COBR — as they scramble plans to mitigate the impact of a nightmare few weeks of industrial action that will hit Britons celebrating Christmas. Most seriously, time is running out to avert the unprecedented walkout of nursing staff this Thursday. Health Secretary Steve Barclay and Royal College of Nursing boss Pat Cullen both insist they want to talk again, but are yet to agree on a basis on which they could meet.

State of play: Ministers dug in over the weekend, refusing to hold face-to-face pay negotiations with the Royal College of Nursing in return for a pause on this week’s strike action. Cullen suggested that she could reconsider a pay demand of 5 percent above the rate of inflation if Barclay agrees to seriously negotiate a pay deal. But ministers continue to insist pay is not up for discussion as they have accepted the recommendations of their independent pay review bodies. Barclay will be on the BBC Breakfast sofa at 7.30 a.m. explaining the government position, with Cullen due to make her case on ITV’s Good Morning Britain an hour later at 8.30 a.m.

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Action man: In the absence of any breakthrough on nursing and other public sector disputes, Oliver Dowden, Rishi Sunak’s chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and fixer, will chair the COBR meeting of transport, defense, health and home office ministers, whose departments are all grappling with the fallout of the walkouts. The government said last night the army was being trained to help Border Force staff at airports and ports, and also to drive ambulances if thousands of paramedics in England and Wales also strike next Wednesday (December 21). 

The man in charge: BBC Radio 4’s interesting profile of Dowden, the man tasked with coordinating the government response to the winter strikes, is worth a listen ahead of his big week. 

Marginal gains: Drafting in the military might make a good headline, but sources have been casting doubt on how much the army can actually do to help. An NHS source told the Times help from the military was likely to be “marginal,” adding: “All help is welcome, but we have to be realistic that this is not going to prevent serious disruption.” Soldiers themselves are seemingly not mad about the idea either. Today’s Guardian front page quotes a military source who is pretty unimpressed with the “military aid to civilian authorities” (Maca) arrangements. “Maca used to be last resort. Now it’s the go-to. Bad government planning equals soldiers missing Xmas,” the source told the paper, reportedly reflecting repeated grumblings they had heard from junior ranks.

Battle for hearts and minds: The big question for ministers is whose side the public will be on if the disruption is as serious as some predict. In last night’s press release, Dowden did not pull his punches. “Of course we want to ensure that people are paid fairly, but what isn’t fair is for union bosses to put people’s livelihoods at risk in order to push their pay demands to the front of the queue,” he said. “Nor would it be fair to ask families to pay an extra £1000 a year to meet the union demands.” We can expect to hear a lot more of this line of reasoning in the weeks and months ahead. 

On side: Tory MPs seem to be reasonably supportive of the government approach at the moment, at least according to those Playbook spoke to over the weekend. “The inflation arguments are pretty powerful,” one former minister said, while a second former minister said MPs were relaxed “for now,” though cautioned it might change “if constituents start emailing in about canceled operations.” 

Time to resist: On Westminster Hour last night, former Deputy PM Damian Green went on the attack accusing unions — “maybe not the nurses” — of “looking at this as a set of political strikes.” 

“This is a quasi-general strike they are trying to organize and that needs to be resisted by everyone who cares about democracy,” he said. 

Hitting back: Unison General Secretary Christina McAnea, whose union is behind the paramedic strike, gets her say in the Mirror and writes that “a solution to the dispute is possible.”

“Instead of upping the ante with talk of COBRA and the army, ministers should be concentrating all their efforts on ending the disputes,” she thundered.

Grim reality: In case you were wondering exactly how bad it is going to be, here is Playbook’s rundown of this week’s picket line program.

— Tomorrow: A nationwide RMT train strike begins. It continues Wednesday … Rural Payments Agency customer service staff begin strike action … Driving examiners in northeast England and Scotland will strike until Sunday.

— Wednesday: Royal Mail postal workers begin another two days of strikes.

— Thursday: Royal College of Nursing staff in England, Wales and Northern Ireland to strike for the first time in their history … Unite engineers on Great Western Railway to hold a day-long strike.

— Friday: Another two-day wave of RMT national strike action begins … Abellio bus drivers in London also begin a two-day strike … Ground handling staff at Heathrow will begin a 72-hour walkout … National Highways staff working in northern England begin a two-day strike. 

— Saturday: Network Rail and Eurostar staff are still on strike, as are driving instructors, Abellio London bus drivers, ground handling staff and northern National Highways workers.

Saving grace: Health sources point out it is not all trusts where nurses will go on strike. The Mirror has a handy map with the areas affected. 

More and more: Ballots of Royal College of Midwives and Unite workers in NHS Scotland both close today, meaning there could be more strikes called in the coming days, and Emma Runswick, the deputy chairwoman of the BMA council, told Sky News yesterday that it was “very likely” that junior doctors would also strike because pay had not kept pace with inflation. 

Calling Keir: With the government in the eye of the industrial action storm, opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer is hitting the airwaves and hosting his phone-in on LBC at 9 a.m. He will also be on ITV’s Robert Peston show tonight. 

Hold my beer: But it is not all peace, love and harmony in the Labour Party. Former frontbencher Sam Tarry popped up on LBC yesterday afternoon to take a few potshots at Wes Streeting after the shadow health secretary told the Sunday Telegraph he was “treated like some sort of heretic by the BMA” for pointing out the appalling state of access to primary care. Tarry hit back that: “Our job is not to declare war on trade unions before we’re even in government.” He stopped short of calling for Streeting to resign but mischievously told LBC he thought doctors across the country would certainly be thinking that. A Labour source told Playbook Tarry should “read the quotes, not the Telegraph’s headline,” hitting back that they were “more interested in what people who represent NHS staff think than soon to be former-Labour MPs.” It’s worth remembering Tarry was recently deselected as Labour candidate for his seat in Ilford South.

What Streeting wants to talk about: Research showing an NHS hospital spent more than £5,200 for a locum doctor to cover a single shift. The Mirror has a write-up of the Labour research. Starmer and Streeting will be visiting a hospital to see robotic operations in action, and launching its “Nurses, not non-doms” campaign promising to pay for more doctors and nurses by abolishing the non-dom tax status.

TORY PARTY MANAGEMENT: Big news for followers of Tory factionalism. A trio of Tory pressure groups asserted themselves over the weekend. 

The way forward: Conservative Way Forward, the Thatcherite grouping rebooted by Brexiteer organizer-in-chief Steve Baker earlier this year before he was made a minister, has a report out today calling for there to be major ​​spending cuts on equality and diversity measures so there can be tax cuts. The Sunday papers say it has the backing of 40 MPs. Tory MP Greg Smith is now chairing the group after Baker was elevated into ministerial ranks. 

The Cruddas crew: It will also be worth keeping an eye on the newly launched Conservative Democratic Organisation, which could potentially be hostile to Sunak. It is calling for ordinary Conservative Party members to “take back control” after the “coronation” of Sunak without a vote being cast by Conservative Party members. Boris Johnson fan and Tory donor Peter Cruddas is the group’s president and treasurer. Former Home Secretary Priti Patel is on board too. She reckons the party needs to “empower” members “to have more say over our policies and candidates.”

What about the kids? And there is the Next Gen Tories group, which launched last week. That group wants the Conservatives to “tackle the policy priorities of the under 45s” including expensive housing, the rising cost of living and unaffordable childcare with freer markets and nimble regulation. It claims to have the backing of former Cabinet minister Simon Clarke. Perhaps one for ex-PM Liz Truss, who the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman says is on the hunt for a think tank to either set up or endorse?

Sweet-talking Sunak: The new PM is doing what he can to charm his rebellious colleagues after his first few weeks in office negotiating whack-a-mole rebellions. Playbook hears he invited a load of MPs and their partners to Chequers yesterday for a “bullish” pep talk, telling his increasingly downbeat colleagues the Conservatives can be an unstoppable machine when they pull together. It was “very David Cameron, in the best possible way,” one of those present quipped.

Just landed: The Office for National Statistics has just published the monthly GDP estimates in the last few minutes. The economy is estimated to have grown by 0.5 percent in October, following a fall of 0.6 percent in September, the report said. “However, over the last three months as a whole the economy shrank, with falls seen across services and manufacturing,” said ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan. A clip from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also expected to drop shortly. 

Something to cheer: Amid all the gloom, there is something to celebrate in the FT. Tom Wilson reports that U.S. scientists have “made a breakthrough in the pursuit of limitless, zero-carbon power by achieving a net energy gain in a fusion reaction for the first time.” Bad news for Sunday journalists who have been keeping news editors happy with tales of woe from the low thermostat front line.

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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

ON THE WORLD STAGE: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will give his first major speech since he took charge at the foreign office this morning. He will set out plans for new relationships with up-and-coming countries. The Guardian reckons he will target a group of about two dozen middle-level countries, but the paper says it “marks a downgrade of a commitment to human rights as a prerequisite for close relations with the UK.” Diplomats based in London have been invited to hear Cleverly speak in the swanky Locarno Suite at the foreign office at 10 a.m. The speech will be live-streamed from the FCDO Twitter account for any snowed-in ambassadors.

LABOUR HITS NI: A Labour Party delegation, including David Lammy, Peter Kyle and Jenny Chapman, will be in Derry/Londonderry today, meeting businesses affected by the Northern Ireland protocol impasse. They will head to Foyle Port, which handles 2 million tons of cargo a year. The trio plan to bang the drum for their proposed “practical measures” to end the deadlock, including an agreement on reducing food and drink checks across the Irish Sea.

PASSAGE TO INDIA: Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch will touch down in Delhi around about now and will embark on a 48-hour bid to inject fresh momentum into stalling negotiations on a free-trade deal. Badenoch and Indian Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal, in their first face-to-face meeting, will kick off the sixth round of negotiations (and the first since July), set to last through the week. 

Off the agenda: Badenoch told the Telegraph and the Sun she will not discuss Indian demands for hundreds more student visas, because they are a separate Home Office issue, although a government source later told the paper Badenoch was not entirely taking student visas off the table, because the issue could be discussed as part of separate talks.

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with Defense Questions, followed by any UQs or statements … The main business is the third reading of the bill which ratifies the New Zealand and Aussie trade deals — which, it’s worth remembering, the former Environment Secretary George Eustice said was “not actually a very good deal for the U.K.” … Followed by a short debate and vote on the government’s voter ID plans (more on that below), before MPs debate the standards committee’s Code of Conduct recommendations. Tory MP Bob Seely has an adjournment debate on testing moles and skin tags for skin cancer.

ID WAR: The Lib Dems will force a (fruitless) division on the government’s plans to introduce voter ID in the Commons this afternoon — but the real electoral policy action is likely to come in the Lords tomorrow, where according to the i’s Emily Ferguson the party will be trying to quite literally kill the policy. Ferguson reports that the Libs will force a vote on a rare parliamentary procedure known as a “fatal motion,” which is exactly as it sounds. Elsewhere, the Observer’s Michael Savage reported that council leaders — including LGA chief and Tory councilor James Jamieson — are urging the government to delay the plans to introduce voter ID in time for next May’s council elections.

TROJAN HORSE FIGHTBACK: Conservative think tank Policy Exchange has a new report out aimed at countering the reporting of a New York Times’ podcast series about the Trojan Horse affair, which involved claims that there was an organized attempt by Islamist activists to take over state schools in Birmingham. The NYT podcast series characterized the scandal as an “Islamophobic hoax.” Michael Gove, education secretary at the time, wrote in the report’s joint foreword with former No. 10 aide Nick Timothy that the newspaper has “useful idiots” who portray the U.K. “as an insular backwater” in their reporting.

MOVING MIGRANTS: The Home Office plans to turn off-season holiday parks into accommodation for people crossing the Channel in small boats, the Times’ Matt Dathan and Steven Swinford report. Ministers want to reduce the £5.6 million a day being spent on hotels, with old university halls also touted as a possible option.

COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: The Treasury committee will hear from senior Treasury officials, including new Permanent Secretary James Bowler (3.15 p.m.) … The leveling up committee will grill metro mayors Tracy Brabin, Andy Burnham and Andy Street as part of its inquiry into Leveling Up funding (4 p.m.) … and the NI affairs committee will hear from the Independent Reporting Commission, which recommends a group transition process for paramilitary groups aimed at their disbandment (4.30 p.m.). Full list here.

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with two new peers taking their seats — Air Chief Marshal Stuart Peach and Peter Hendy, the chair of Network Rail … There will then be oral questions on housing benefit for domestic abuse victims, the Information Commissioner’s Office reprimanding Department for Education for breaching data protection laws and abuse against football referees at football matches — Scottish Tory leader and linesman Douglas Ross will surely be tuning in … and then the main business is committee stage debate on the Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Bill, which would allow gene-editing.

COURTS FIRST: Convicted murderer Russell Causley (who killed his wife Carol Packman in the 1980s) will face a parole hearing today — which victims, the public and the media will be able to attend for the first time in U.K. history. There had been calls for greater transparency in the parole system following the (eventually reversed) decision to release convicted sex offender John Worboys in 2018.

BROKEN BRITAIN: Nearly 1 million households across Britain expect to face eviction this winter … Four in 10 low-income families will need to skip meals to pay for housing costs, while a similar proportion expects they won’t be able to heat their home … and over 3 million households are behind on payments for one or more of their outgoings. All of that from homeless charity Crisis’ latest research and polling of 2,000 low-income households, which provides a pretty stark snapshot of how the cost of living crisis is impacting vulnerable Brits.

SCHOOLS SQUEEZE: An additional £2.3 billion in funding to English schools from the Autumn Statement won’t prevent a squeeze on school budgets, a new IFS report warns. The think tank also warns that colleges, sixth forms and universities are set to struggle, after no additional funds were granted despite rising costs.

HANCOCK WATCH: TikTok influencer and one-time serious politician Matt Hancock is planning to create “serious documentaries” on dyslexia and assisted dying after he leaves office, the Telegraph’s Tony Diver and Will Hazell had over the weekend. Hancock mentioned — or was broadcast mentioning — those subjects a combined total of three times during his two weeks in the Aussie jungle.

Remember: The cow’s-anus-devouring MP is “definitely not doing any more reality TV,” his spokesperson insisted to POLITICO last week.

BEYOND THE M25

UKRAINE UPDATE: Ukrainian forces struck a hotel in eastern Ukraine where many of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group are thought to have been based, according to Luhansk’s Ukrainian governor Serhiy Haidai. The governor said Russia suffered “significant losses” in the strike. The BBC’s Phelan Chatterjee has a write-up. Fighting continues in southern Ukraine, with Russia launching drones at Odesa and Ukraine fighting back against Moscow forces in Melitopol.

ICYMI: Foreign Secretary Cleverly told Sunday’s Ridge program that any peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine “need to be real, they need to be meaningful — they can’t just be a fig leaf for Russian re-armament and further recruitment of soldiers.” He added that he hasn’t seen any evidence that Vladimir Putin is serious about his call for peace talks.

LOCKERBIE ARREST: The families of victims who were killed in the 1988 Pan Am bombing have expressed their relief after Sunday’s announcement that a suspect accused of making the bomb was in U.S. custody, a full 34 years later. Scottish and American authorities said Abu Agela Mas’ud Kheir Al-Marimi, a Libyan man, was in custody as of yesterday. POLITICO’s Olivia Olander has the details.

AND JUST IN CASE … You’ve not been closely following the wild developments that hit Brussels over the weekend, which saw the European Parliament VP Eva Kaili and three others charged with corruption as part of a probe into an alleged illicit influence campaign by Qatar, POLITICO’s Sarah Wheaton has an essential explainer here.

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MEDIA ROUND

BBC Breakfast: Shadow Social Care Minister Liz Kendall (6.35 a.m.) … Health Secretary Steve Barclay (7.30 a.m.).

Good Morning Britain, live from Whiston Hospital on Merseyside: Mental Health Minister Maria Caulfield (8.20 a.m.) … Royal College of Nurses General Secretary Pat Cullen (8.30 a.m.).

Kay Burley: Unison national officer Alan Lofthouse (7.20 a.m.) … Liz Kendall (8.05 a.m.) … General Richard Barrons (8.20 a.m.).

Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Former Labour spinner Tom Baldwin … Doctors’ Association U.K. co-chair Ellen Welch (7.10 a.m.) … Phone-in with Labour leader Keir Starmer (9 a.m.).

Times Radio Breakfast: Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation (7.35 a.m.) … Liz Kendall (7.45 a.m.) … Royal College of Nursing’s England Director Patricia Marquis (8.05 a.m.).

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC): Former Lib Dem/Labour/Change MP Luciana Berger … Tory MP Craig Whittaker … Greens deputy leader Zack Polanski … The Spectator’s James Heale.

Peston special edition (Live on Twitter 9 p.m. and ITV at 10.45 p.m.): Labour leader Keir Starmer, Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis and Iceland boss Richard Walker.

Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 and 11.30 p.m.): The Guardian’s Pippa Crerar and the Sun’s Harry Cole … talkTV (10.20 p.m.): POLITICO’s Jack Blanchard and former Culture Secretary Nicky Morgan.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.):

Daily Express: Lake horror.

Daily Mail: Horror on the frozen lake.

Daily Mirror: Children in ice lake terror.

Daily Star: Kit’s coming home.

Financial Times: Two MEPs held as Qatari corruption scandal shakes European parliament.

i: Hopes raised for last-ditch talks to stop nurses’ strike.

Metro: 999 race to save ice lake horror victims.

PoliticsHome: Nursing union hints at 15 percent pay rise compromise but ministers refuse to negotiate.

POLITICO UK: EU Parliament VP Kaili charged with corruption in Qatar corruption probe.

The Daily Telegraph: Children in frozen lake plunge.

The Guardian: Tories under fire over plans for military to act as ‘strike breakers.’

The Independent: Ministers refuse plea from nurses for pay talks.

The Sun: Euro vision.

The Times: Drafting in troops ‘won’t prevent NHS strike chaos.’

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Early risers might have woken up to falling snow but it should have stopped by now … it will stay cold, highs of 3 and lows of -1C.

BIRTHDAYS: North Antrim MP Ian Paisley Jr. … Former Foreign Office Minister Chris Mullin … BBC presenter Reeta Chakrabarti … POLITICO Europe’s Esther King … Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Emma Anderson, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

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