a familiar story or political earthquake?

Good morning. I haven’t written about the opinion polls very much because, to be blunt, I don’t think that voting intention matters very much at this stage to the government in what will be a four or five year parliament.

What should concern Labour is the very tight spending round implied in Rachel Reeves’ budget plans midway through the parliament and the frankly uncertain path to anything that looks like a feelgood budget any time this side of the next election.

The choice to focus the NHS’s priorities on reducing the number of people waiting for elective treatment seems like the wrong metric to chase when it comes to both voter satisfaction and outcomes in the NHS. Waiting lists to access primary care (or in plain English, a GP appointment) are, I think more important.

In addition, the government may yet get blown off course by the economic repercussions of Donald Trump’s presidency, or by the international alliance that actively wishes it ill — more on that “conservative international” battle in Robert Shrimsley’s column this week.

These are big challenges, and frankly, how the government is polling doesn’t really tell us much. How the opposition is polling tells us some useful things, and a swath of polling shows Reform UK pushing the Conservatives into third place and pushing Labour to first. Some thoughts on what that means in today’s note.

You say you want a revolution

Historically, surges in support for the minor parties have tended to tell us more about the health of the main opposition party than they have the future prospects of the minor party in question. At the end of 1981, the SDP/Liberal Alliance was polling at close to 50 per cent of the vote and was 20 percentage points ahead of the ruling Conservatives. In the summer and early autumn of 2019, Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats were polling almost as well as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is now. The latest average shows Reform is one point ahead of the Conservatives and just three points behind Labour.

Here is one way to look at the current polling: the Labour government has consciously tried to do big and unpopular things early and still enjoys a small opinion poll lead. Even when voters are deeply unhappy with Keir Starmer, they look not to Kemi Badenoch, but to the minor parties. So we might just say “this is a familiar story that will end the same way”: ie the government will be re-elected and the opposition will do very badly indeed next time.

Although “this time it’s different” is mostly as dangerous a thing to say in politics as it is in finance, there are moments in politics in which we do see genuine shifts. The Conservatives being replaced as the main party of the right would be a huge shock, given how old and how successful the Tory party has been. But it would also be pretty in keeping with what has been happening to parties of the right across the world at the moment.

The biggest problem for the Conservatives is that their message about Reform is essentially “Nigel Farage is right. Don’t vote for him”. This message didn’t work for Valérie Pécresse or Ron DeSantis in their battles against Marine Le Pen or Donald Trump respectively. Why would it work for Kemi Badenoch in the UK? Whatever she does, her party is not going to be as convincing a voice for the insurgent populist right than Reform. The Conservative party is one of the oldest parties in the democratic world: it is the definition of a legacy brand! Unsurprisingly, Reform is gaining in the polls and picking off ex-Tory donors in this environment.

What I think we can say with confidence is that Reform’s performances are a bad sign for the Conservatives’ current approach. But we can’t yet tell if this is the familiar story of “unpopular government, weak opposition, surging third party, government re-elected” or if the “conservative international” really will rewire British politics.

Now try this

I’m off to Sri Lanka next week for a friend’s wedding, but Inside Politics will continue without me with an array of great guests. See you a week Tuesday, and however you spend it, have a wonderful weekend!

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