Earnings preview: Royal Mail, Howden Joinery, Dunelm

Earnings results are a great way for investors to judge a company. They’re used to determine whether companies are on track with their initial guidance. These results can often radically move share prices in either direction, depending on the numbers reported. So, here’s an earnings preview for three FTSE firms reporting results this week.

It’s always best to compare firms’ new quarterly/half-year numbers to those from prior years. But certain revenue figures may have been impacted by the pandemic, so it’s important to get context from pre-pandemic levels too. The new figures that are due can also be useful to determine whether a company can perform better than its previous year’s numbers, or if it can beat analysts’ annual forecasts. Nonetheless, analysts in the UK don’t normally publish earnings previews for quarterly or half-year periods.

Royal Mail (Q1 trading update)

Royal Mail (LSE: RMG) is Britain’s biggest postal service and courier company. The group runs the brands Royal Mail and GLS (an international logistics company). The FTSE 250 firm is expected to provide a trading update for its most recent Q1 performance ending June 2022 on Wednesday 20 July. The company’s financial year ends in March 2023.

Analysts covering Royal Mail are predicting a slowdown in both its top and bottom lines for the current financial year. The board painted a gloomy picture for the group in its Q4 earnings call, which sent the share price crashing. Lockdown tailwinds have dissipated, and the logistics group is locked in discussions with staff over its latest pay round, with the threat of possible strike action. Pair that with a slowing British economy and high fuel costs, and it seems to me that the only way for its share price to go is down. Making matters worse, EPS for its current year has seen a steady decline from £0.54 to £0.45 over the last 90 days. Nonetheless, if revenue figures come in above 2020 levels, there could be a surprise rally.

Howden Joinery (H1 earnings)

Howden Joinery (LSE: HWDN) is the UK’s number one trade kitchen supplier. It provides thousands of products across kitchens, joinery, and hardware. The FTSE 100 firm is expected to post its half-year earnings for its six months performance ending June on 21 July. The company’s financial year ends in December 2022.

The overall consensus is that Howden Joinery is expected to continue growing its top and bottom lines. Analysts have also revised their EPS targets for the current year upwards, by nearly £0.01 in the last 90 days. That being said, investors will be paying attention to the guidance provided on Thursday in order to determine whether the supplier can beat its previous year’s record figures.

Dunelm (Q4 trading update)

Dunelm (LSE: DNLM) is a British home furnishings retailer that operates throughout the UK. It’s one of the largest homewares retailers in the country with an ever growing market share. The FTSE 250 firm will be posting its Q4 trading update for the period ending June 2022 on Thursday 21 July. The company’s financial year ends in June 2022.

While public listed companies normally release their full year results along with their Q4 numbers, Dunelm will only report its FY earnings on 14 September. This is most likely due to its financial year only ending three weeks ago. Therefore, the trading update will be more akin to an earnings preview.

Having said that, the revenue figure will be watched closely as specific bottom line figures will only be released in September. Comments from the board will also be closely monitored as investors look to determine whether EPS estimates will be met. Nevertheless, analysts have revised their EPS targets from £0.79 to £0.80 in the last 90 days. Despite that, a slowdown in retail sales in the last quarter should be kept in mind. It may have impacted Dunelm’s top line figure, along with higher fuel and labour costs. These macroeconomic factors could see analysts’ EPS being revised lower, if management hints at lower margins in the trading update.