Election 2019 threat: Polling guru John Curtice issues warning to PM over potential defeat | UK | News

According to polling data released last week by the Electoral Calculus, the Tories have surged to 42.8 percent in the survey which polled 7,500 people from November 14 to 19. In accordance with the data, Mr Johnson looks set to win 357 seats ahead of Labour with 207, the Lib Dems with 19 and the SNP with 44.

Despite that data, Sir John has warned that the Tory party should be wary of three factors which may stop them from winning the election.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph, Sir John pointed out that currently, the party is holding the support of “one of five of those” who voted Remain.

However, due to his constant message to “Get Brexit done”, Mr Johnson may not be able to maintain that support.

Moreover, since 2017, Sir John also stated that despite Jeremy Corbyn being criticised for his neutral stance on Brexit, the intention in the Labour party is to try and attempt to win some Leave voters who supported the party in 2017.

As the polling expert stated: “Much of the party’s domestic policy programme, such as the nationalisation of the utilities, and putting employee representatives on company boards, has been shown by both ComRes and YouGov to be relatively popular with voters, including those who voted Leave.”

In the ComRes poll which Sir John highlighted, it found that 45 percent of Leave voters support nationalising the utilities, BT and Royal Mail – all of which are Labour election pledges.

Lastly, the expert stated that Mr Johnson’s “prospects rest heavily on a continuation of the partisan division in the ranks of Remain voters”.

He said: “On average in the polls, the level of support for all of those parties in favour of a second referendum is slightly above that for parties in favour of Brexit.

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“However, whereas Mr Johnson has the support of around two-thirds of Leavers, Mr Corbyn is backed by only just over two-fifths of Remainers.

“The Conservatives’ seemingly comfortable poll lead would soon be reduced if the Remain vote were to coalesce behind Labour, rather than be split between Mr Corbyn’s party and the Liberal Democrats who still have just under 30 per cent of the Remain vote.”

Away from the two main parties, the Times has reported that the Lib Dems are set to launch a new strategy in order to help salvage their election campaign.

According to the newspaper, Ms Swinson’s party will attempt to dig up past claims made by the Prime Minister according to leaked documents.

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The document states that it’s aim is to “help candidates attack Boris Johnson’s record, by outlining his long history of making false and exaggerated claims and derogatory remarks in order to further his own political career”.

The 12-page dossier is allegedly being circulated to candidates throughout the weekend.

It includes some of Mr Johnson’s more controversial remarks.

Moreover, the briefing also states that the party will aim for “soft Tories in target seats”.

The secret briefing reads: “We know from polling that voters see Boris Johnson as untrustworthy, dishonest, self-interested and out of touch.

“It’s crucial we emphasise this in conversations with voters on the doorstep and over the phone, showing Boris Johnson is not fit to be Britain’s next prime minister.”

The leaked strategy comes as the Lib Dem leader was grilled during the Question Time debate on Friday night.

One audience member asked: “Is revoking Article 50 confirming to 17.4 million people that you think we’re stupid and don’t know what we voted for?”

The Lib Dem leader said: “You cannot accuse us of not being upfront about wanting to stop Brexit. We have been crystal clear about that from the very beginning.

“Not for one second do I think that means you or anyone like you is stupid. I think it means we disagree.

“I really want us to be in a situation in this country where we can disagree with each other.”