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While Royal Mail plc (LON:RMG) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the LSE, rising to highs of UK£5.26 and falling to the lows of UK£3.24. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Royal Mail’s current trading price of UK£3.39 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Royal Mail’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
See our latest analysis for Royal Mail
Is Royal Mail still cheap?
According to my valuation model, Royal Mail seems to be fairly priced at around 11% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Royal Mail today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is £3.80, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Royal Mail’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Royal Mail generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Royal Mail, at least in the near future.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? Currently, RMG appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on RMG for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on RMG should the price fluctuate below its true value.
With this in mind, we wouldn’t consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, Royal Mail has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
If you are no longer interested in Royal Mail, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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