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The 2019 election will be the first in decades where both Labour and the Conservatives promise to turn on the public spending tap. The manifestos have yet to be released, but both have already made multibillion-pound pledges as the era of austerity comes to an end.
Labour’s major spending pledges focus on the NHS, benefits, homes and the renationalisation of utilities and rail companies. The Conservatives are expected to confirm expectations of cuts to income tax and national insurance and the lifting of the cap on benefits.
Warm homes
Labour pledge: Under a “green industrial revolution” Labour would fund energy-saving upgrades to low-income households over the next decade. Wealthier households would receive interest-free loans for enhancements. It also promises to bring the energy bills of nearly 10 million low-income households down by an average of £417 a year and eradicate fuel poverty, benefiting 1.14 million elderly people.
The cost: £60bn. The total bill for upgrade works would be £250bn – £9,300 per home – but the party says £21bn would come from loans to regional energy agencies and £169bn from savings on household energy bills.
NHS and social care
Conservative pledge: Under a so-called health infrastructure plan, as many as 40 new hospitals will be rbuilt in England.
The cost: £13bn, but only six hospitals will go ahead at first at a cost of £2.8bn.
Labour pledge: Overall spending will be increased, paid for by rises in income tax on the highest 5% of earners, plus increasing tax on private medical insurance. Will scrap prescription charges and develop a state drug company to develop cheaper medicines. Will increase GP trainee numbers in England by 50%. Creation of a new National Care Service to extend personal care to the over-65s.
The cost: The 2017 election pledge was for £30bn in extra funding, and more is expected in the latest manifesto. The cost of axing prescription charges is estimated at about £750m. Doubling the number of people who receive free social care in England will cost £6bn.
Benefits and pensions
Conservative pledge: The government announced over the weekend that about 2.5 million people on universal credit will see their payments rise by 1.7%, in line with inflation, as will people still on benefits replaced by universal credit, benefiting more than 10 million people in all. The state pension will increase to £175.20 a week, or an extra £344 a year.
The cost: £5bn to end the freeze on benefits, according to the Department for Work and Pensions.
Labour pledge: Labour says it will abolish the benefits freeze, scrap universal credit and put an end to the two-child benefits limit. It criticises the Tories for having imposed the freeze in the first place and pledged “a much more humane, humanitarian system”.
The cost: At the Labour conference, the party said it would spend £3bn on an emergency funding of the benefit system. No pricing was put on longer-term changes to universal credit.
Utility companies
Labour pledge: To bring into public ownership the gas and electricity supply networks and the privatised water and sewerage companies. It has also proposed renationalising the rail operating companies and the Royal Mail.
The cost: The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has said that taking control of the water companies could cost less than £15bn, citing calculations made by the Financial Times. But if the government paid the current stock market value, the price could be closer to £40bn.
The gas and electricity networks, currently in the hands of providers such as National Grid, Iberdrola and Ovo Energy, which has bought SSE’s retail business, will cost far more. National Grid alone has a current market value of £31bn.
Crucially, Labour will cut costs by taking into account “pension fund deficits; asset stripping since privatisation; stranded assets; the state of repair of assets; and state subsidies given to the energy companies since privatisation”. Existing shareholders would be compensated with bonds. The CBI said Labour’s renationalisation plans would cost a total of £196bn, but the party accused the employers’ body of “incoherent scaremongering” and the organisation admitted exaggerating the likely total cost.
Railways and roads
Labour pledge: The party’s 2017 manifesto included a pledge to bring private rail companies back into public ownership as their franchises expired, and this is expected to be repeated in its new manifesto.
The cost: This could be relatively cheap, because the rail companies operate on time-limited franchises. As they expire, the government could pick them up almost cost-free. Longer-term franchises could be taken over using break clauses in their contracts.
McDonnell has said his plans are cost-neutral because the cash generated by newly acquired private companies would cover the cost of financing the debt needed to buy them.
Conservative pledge: The chancellor, Sajid Javid, has already announced extensive spending plans for the strategic roads network. Boris Johnson has previously signalled his opposition to the HS2 high-speed link.
The cost: Javid’s roads spending for 2020 to 2025 could be about £25bn under already-announced plans, with an additional £220m to improve bus services. The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, has already delayed the first phase of HS2 between London and Birmingham by up to five years. A review on the future of the £62bn scheme has been put on hold until after the election.
Personal taxes
Conservative pledge: Increase the threshold for the 40p rate of income tax from £50,000 to £80,000, and raise the starting point for national insurance (NI), with reports that this will be worth £460 per worker.
The cost: The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates the income tax giveaway would cost £8bn a year and help 2.5 million of the highest-earning employees.
Every £1,000 rise in the threshold at which employees and the self-employed pay NI would cost £3bn. Matching it with the starting point for income tax of £12,500 would cost £17bn.
Labour pledge: No specific pledges yet, but the party’s 2017 manifesto promised to impose a 45p tax rate on those earning more than £80,000 and a 50% rate above £123,000. At present, the highest income tax rate is 45%, for those earning more than £150,000.
Labour would also significantly increase capital gains tax and replace inheritance tax with a “lifetime gifts” levy, with a tax-free allowance of £125,000, less than half the current £325,000. There are also plans to increase corporation tax to 26%, up from the current rate of 19%.
The cost: Raising taxes is not a cost but a revenue measure. Labour has previously estimated that income tax rises would raise £6.4bn. The corporation tax take would increase by £19.4bn, and £6.5bn would come in from shutting tax loopholes.
Law and order
Conservative pledge: Bolster police ranks by 20,000 in England and Wales and arm more police with Tasers. People convicted of violent and sexual crimes, as well as foreign national offenders, will face heavier sentences. Labour has separately pledged to give the police “the money they need” and are expected to match Conservative commitments on police numbers.
The cost: As already announced in Javid’s October spending review, it will cost £750m for the first stage of recruiting up to 6,000 more “bobbies on the beat” by the end of 2020-21. Critics say the extra money from central government will be swallowed up by the extra pension costs forces will have to pay after a decision by the Treasury to increase payments.
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