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Last week, a poll suggested British public support for monarchy was at a historic low. Days earlier, another said nearly four in 10 young adults wanted an elected UK head of state.
But this week, other surveys – covered prominently in right-leaning newspapers – claim to have uncovered a reignited love for and loyalty to the monarchy. A look behind their headlines, however, shows a more complex story.
A Daily Mail front page announced “rock solid” support for the royal family and little appetite for republicanism, with the paper saying Britain would decisively back the monarchy if a referendum were held tomorrow.
The findings, from a large survey by the former Conservative deputy chair Michael Ashcroft, found that well over half the UK would vote for a constitutional monarchy, with less than a quarter against.
But when given five identities to choose from, 39% of the 11,450 people surveyed described themselves as “committed” or “mainstream monarchists” – a strikingly similar number to the 37% who identified as “modern republicans” or “angry abolitionists”.
Others chose the “neutral pragmatists” moniker, saying that while the monarchy needed to be scaled back, any alternative to it might end up being worse. Far from “rock solid” support, these floating voters counted for 24% of respondents.
The “rock solid” claim is also at odds with the finding that King Charles III has a positive approval rating of 54%, well below that of his late mother, on 76%, and his son William, on 64%.
Statistics further down in the article also suggest a distinct risk of further erosion in support for the Firm: if a referendum vote were held in 10 years’ time, only 36% of respondents in the poll thought the monarchy would survive, and in 50 years’ time, just 20%.
The statistics are not too dissimilar to those from a survey by the National Centre for Social Research that showed last week that public support for the monarchy had fallen to a historic low.
A total of 45% of respondents said either it should be abolished, was not at all important or not very important. Only three in 10 said the monarchy was “very important”, the lowest proportion on record.
All the papers’ polls found that support for the monarchy could be relied on only among people aged 65 and older. The Mail found 34% of those aged 18 to 24 favoured a republic, while 74% of those aged over 65 would vote to keep the monarchy.
These numbers were very similar in a YouGov poll in the Times. That paper’s headline – “Majority thinks Charles will be a good king” – was as favourable to the monarchy as the Mail’s.
The Times poll, which asked far fewer questions, found 60% of people were in favour of the monarchy, but also revealed that just 48% of those questioned viewed the late queen positively, compared with 40% who had a negative view.
In Scotland, a smaller poll of 1,079 adults by the National found that just one-third of British people think Charles is important. Just 29% believe he is hard-working and 25% say he is highly respected.
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