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These days it’s easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the Royal Mail plc (LON:RMG) share price is 73% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 15% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. And shareholders have also done well over the long term, with an increase of 54% in the last three years.
After a strong gain in the past week, it’s worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for Royal Mail
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year Royal Mail saw its earnings per share (EPS) increase strongly. We don’t think the exact number is a good guide to the sustainable growth rate, but we do think this sort of increase is impressive. We are not surprised the share price is up. To us, inflection points like this are the best time to take a close look at a stock.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It’s probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Royal Mail’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Royal Mail’s TSR for the last 1 year was 76%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It’s nice to see that Royal Mail shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 76% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That’s better than the annualised return of 8% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Royal Mail better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Royal Mail (of which 1 can’t be ignored!) you should know about.
But note: Royal Mail may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
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