Scottish retail ‘remains static’ with food sales ‘slightly down’

Scottish retail sales remain “essentially static”, a trend which has run for the entire second half of the year so far, according to experts.

Figures from the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) KPMG Scottish retail sales monitor show that total sales in Scotland decreased by 0.7% last month compared with October 2023, when they had grown 2.9%.

This was below the three-month average decrease of 0.6% and below the 12-month average growth of 0.1%.

Adjusted for inflation, there was a year-on-year increase of 0.1%.

On a like-for-like basis, Scottish sales decreased by 0.2% compared with October 2023, when they had increased by 2.8%.

This is above the three-month average decrease of 0.3% and below the 12-month average growth of 0.1%.

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David Lonsdale, director of the SRC, said: “Scottish retailers will need even more patience as they wait for retail sales to return to significant growth.

“Sales rose by a microscopic 0.1 percent in October in real terms, an identical result to September and continuing a trend of essentially static trading which runs back to June.

“Food sales were slightly down, reflecting the adjustment in inflation against 2023, and perhaps giving households a little headroom for more discretionary spending.

“Perhaps consequentially more discretionary-focused high street trading was slightly up, with Halloween related purchases, and beauty products including early sales of advent calendars showing that shoppers are turning their attention to Christmas.

“These figures will provide little solace for retailers who would have hoped for something a little sweeter after being hit with a flood of new costs in a bitter UK Budget.

“Stores will be hoping for bumper sales in the next two crucial trading months to try to deliver the revenues to pay the hundreds of millions of extra costs Scotland’s retailers were hit with last week.

“They will also be looking nervously to the upcoming Scottish budget and hoping there are no further expensive surprises.”

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, said: “While October’s growth didn’t continue at the levels seen for the Scottish retail sector in September, retailers will feel that there is mitigation and that they can pick up the pace again in November.

“Speculation about the impact of the Budget and a holding back of demand until Black Friday promotions likely all impacted retail sales data over the last month.

“With clarity now provided by the Budget, retailers will be hoping for an upturn in consumer confidence and spending.

“Any positivity from retailers though will, of course, be dampened given the increased employment costs that they face.

“The promotional weeks around Black Friday will be the first real test of post-Budget consumer sentiment, with retailers looking to electronics promotions and new AI-linked products to build on the computing and mobile phone sales growth that has been one of the better areas of sales performance in recent months.”