The weird science of holding a general election in December

From the wreckage of Brexit, at last, something concrete has emerged. The nation will get an early Christmas present: a general election. The December 12 date is unorthodox, as general elections are more typically held in spring or summer. But will the change in timing – and the attendant variations in terms of weather, shorter days, and whatnot – have any impact?

This will be the first December election since 1923; as all ten general elections since 1979 have been held between April and June. You might expect December’s likely inclement climate to affect turnout. But evidence from the past is scarce on this front. “Winter elections have been rare over the last 50 years,” says Cliff Williamson, a lecturer at Bath Spa University with a specialism in modern British history.

In 1974, a general election held on February 28 attracted a turnout of 78.8 per cent, higher than the 1970 election that was held in summer. And the highest turnout for any post-war election was in 1950, which just happened to also be in February.

“Such evidence as we have – which is limited – does not provide any support for the proposition that you can’t hold an election in the winter,” says John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde. (Astronomically speaking, winter doesn’t start until December 22, but we will consider December a wintry month here.)

Scientists in other countries have analysed the weather’s effects on turnout. Research from Ghent University, Belgium, studied the effect of warmer weather on American elections from 1960 to 2016 by comparing the difference between the maximum temperature on voting day and the day before.

The researchers found that for every 10C increase in temperature, voter turnout increased by 1.4 per cent. Although this pales in comparison to more “usual suspect” factors affecting voting outcome – like the president being available for reappointment, and presidential approval ratings – it is still enough to cinch the outcome in a close race. For example, the 2000 presidential race between Al Gore and George W. Bush was close enough for weather to conceivably have an effect.

Beyond temperature, the effects of different kinds of weather are less conclusive. Research from 2007 published in the University of Chicago Press found that every incremental inch of rain decreased voter turnout by one percentage point. However, a 2013 study from researchers at Gothenburg University in Sweden didn’t find any effect of rain on turnout. Research from Oxford University also disputed any connection between weather and voter turnout, finding turnout was far more motivated by the election race being close or not and the policy differences between the leading parties.

But this is simply voter turnout. Having made it to the polls, could voting in December have an effect on what people actually vote for? The same research from Ghent University found that an increase in temperature tended to translate into increased support for the incumbent party (although somewhat confusingly it also motivated some voters to stump for smaller political parties such as the Greens or the Libertarians).

In terms of rain, a study from Cambridge University found that rainy weather reduced people’s tolerance for risk – meaning less risky candidates (that is: incumbents, or those perceived as more experienced) lucked out in rainy weather.

At the end of the day, however, the – theoretical – cumulative effect of these factors is small. If people are highly committed, chances are they’ll make it to the polls and vote for their favourite candidate. Weather effects have previously been shown to impact less important decisions, such as whether people accept the offer of a date from a stranger. Political beliefs – especially in these divisive times – are less susceptible to being swayed by meteorological factors.

What could become more pressing, however, are the logistics and practical considerations of staging an impromptu election at this time of year. Winter weather is more unpredictable, meaning that heavy rain, wind or snow could derail voters’ travel plans to reach polling stations in some parts of the country.

This risk is particularly exaggerated in places with more tricky travel logistics such as Orkney, the Shetlands and other Hebridean islands, where locals rely on ferries and flights to traverse the islands. Extreme weather has struck voters before, like when flash floods hit the 2016 EU Referendum, forcing people to wade to voting stations in some parts of the country.

“I believe this will be a battle of the postal vote,” says Williamson. In 2017, there were 8.2 million people registered to vote by post, but demand for postal votes might well be inflated this year. However, at such short notice, postal voting is also fraught with issues.

Postal vote registration will have to be completed by November 26, but last minute voters may not receive their papers in time due to the intense time pressure. Laura Lock, deputy chief executive of the Association of Electoral Administrators (AEA) told The Guardian that the organisation had started discussing with Royal Mail about prioritising postal ballot deliveries over normal Christmas mail. Complicating matters even further, postal workers are considering strike action in December.

Then, of course, there is the C-word. December is not just different because it’s colder – it’s different because Christmas happens. “Christmas is potentially a different story,” says Curtice. “We certainly know that in parliamentary by-elections that get held close to Christmas, the turn-out tends to fall away.”

Other logistical issues include typical polling station venues like halls and churches being already booked up for Yuletide parties or pantos. “Councils are really hard pressed financially and the costs of postponing events, rearranging and recruiting for the poll are massive,” says Williamson. On this front, there isn’t a clear historical precedent. “The last time we had elections in December, Christmas was not an enormous secular festival, in which the country shuts down for two weeks, and spends the previous two weeks going to Nativity plays and office parties and all the rest of it,” says Curtice.

December also means flu season. Australia, a snotty bellwether, suffered a particularly ferocious bout of flu this year, meaning the UK is braced for the same. This could potentially become an optics problem for the Conservative Party: if the NHS struggled to deal with the crisis, that would provide Labour with a convenient hook to attack the Tories’ decade-long austerity onslaught on public services. The prospect of a winter NHS crisis has reportedly featured in shadow cabinet debates – namely the importance of having a pre-Christmas election rather than one in January or February, when the country could be ravaged by flu.

Finally, December weather could affect campaigning operations. Labour, which has typically relied more heavily on an active canvassing than the Conservatives, could be more adversely affected by shorter days. People are less likely to open their doors to strangers in the dark, and certain groups of canvassers – women for example – might feel less comfortable canvassing alone in the dark.

There is also the general point that people will be distracted by festive cheer and holiday-making arrangements to bother with doorstep political chatter. “Canvassing is one of the most effective ways of getting people out, and other things being equal it will be more difficult,” says Curtice. This might mean that other methods like online and social media campaigning might grow more important.

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