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(Bloomberg) — U.K. domestic stocks are likely to surge on Friday after an election that handed a clear majority and mandate on Brexit to the Conservative Party, lifting years of uncertainty that has hung over the stocks since the country first voted to leave the European Union.
It is a “new era for equities” and a majority Tory government will be “extremely positive” for business, said Paul Mumford, a fund manager at Cavendish Asset Management. “It is potentially an exciting time for stock pickers like myself.”
Watch the following sectors and stocks when the London market opens.
Homebuilding and Property
Housebuilders including Barratt Developments Plc, Persimmon Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc are likely to rise quite significantly as Brexit has hit consumer confidence and when consumers aren’t feeling confident, they are less keen on buying homes. Clarity on the outlook for Brexit could boost housing transactions.
Commercial-property names like British Land Co., Land Securities Group Plc and Hammerson Plc may benefit from the extra clarity too, as this could boost appetite for U.K. property assets. In addition, a boost to consumer confidence could help the struggling malls and other retail assets owned by firms in the sector.
Exporters
It might prove a complicated day for the FTSE 100. The pound has surged on the election result and the index, heavily weighted to large companies with significant non-U.K. exposure, tends to have a negative correlation to rising sterling due to the translation impact this has on earnings.
However, the U.K. polls are not the only game in town. U.S. President Donald Trump approved the first phase of a trade deal with China, averting the introduction of new tariffs on Sunday. That could give cyclical stocks in the index, particularly miners and oil companies, a lift.
So it may prove that Friday is a battle over who has the most influence on the FTSE 100: Boris Johnson or Donald Trump?
Retailers and Media
Food retailers including Tesco Plc, J Sainsbury Plc and Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc and high street names like Marks & Spencer Group Plc and Next Plc would also benefit from a boost to consumer confidence, particularly just ahead of the key festive shopping season.
There could also be a positive read-across for broadcaster ITV Plc, which has seen a downturn in advertising spending linked to Brexit uncertainty.
Nationalization Targets
Keep an eye on utilities including water firm Severn Trent Plc and United Utilities Group Plc, electricity grid operator National Grid Plc and energy firm SSE Plc, all of which have been targeted for nationalization by the Labour Party. Those companies have been recovering ground against their European peers as the chance of a Labour win receded, but this Tory majority should now remove this risk for the sector.
A similar trend may be seen in postal service group Royal Mail Plc, telecoms operator BT Group Plc and transport firms like FirstGroup Plc and Go-Ahead Group Plc, all of which have also faced a nationalization-related threat.
Financial Services
The entire financial sector will likely benefit from the perception that the Tories are less likely to impose new regulation on the industry. Watch domestic lenders like Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Metro Bank Plc and CYBG Plc and financial services firms like Hargreaves Lansdown Plc and St James’s Place Plc.
For the banks, in particular, analysts have suggested the sector could rally by as much as 10% on a Boris Johnson victory.
Outsourcers
U.K. government contractors like Capita Plc, Serco Group Plc, Babcock International Group Plc, QinetiQ Group Plc and Mitie Group Plc would all be buoyed by the extra clarity and the potential for new government contract awards to start flowing should Westminster’s attention move at least partially away from Brexit.
Bloomberg.com
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