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The sale of DB Schenker will be the largest logistics takeover of the 21st century so far. However, regardless of the buyer, this initiative might not necessarily lead to only positive developments. The main questions that remain concern the future of Deutsche Bahn (DB) and DB Schenker once they will part ways and the international impact of the sale.
The remaining three eligible buyers are Danish shipping giant DSV, the Saudi national shipping carrier Bahri and a partnership between investment funds CVC Capital Partners, Carlyle Group and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. A final agreement with the chosen buyer should be expected to be signed this year, with the sale being finalised in 2025.
Deutsche Bahn’s survival
First and foremost, the financial situation of DB group, DB Schenker’s current mother company, needs to be taken into account. DB is currently struggling, especially its freight subsidiary DB Cargo, with outstanding debts estimated at around 34 billion euros. The sale of DB Schenker should cover a little less than half of this, but would not necessarily solve all issues.
On the other hand, DB Schenker is the main profit-maker for the German railway holding, while other subsidiaries, including DB Cargo, continue to post negative numbers. Thus, a question arises: how will DB find the financial resources necessary to recover from its current situation if the main moneymaker is leaving?
The future of DB Schenker
Other than the well-being of the DB group, the sale of DB Schenker might also have an impact on the structure of the company as well as possible geopolitical implications. Although nothing is yet set in stone, there are rumours that all three parties might decide to make some cuts to the workforce, especially if DB Schenker is sold to investment funds. However, industry experts indicated that DB Schenker is a healthy company, meaning that a restructuring of any kind might not be necessary.
International impact
Last but not least, if either Bahri or the consortium involving the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority gets the logistics giant, international reactions might vary, as a company owned by an EU member state would end up in the hands of non-Western countries. Similar agreements cannot be made in the aviation industry, for example. If an airline company from the EU or the United States goes for sale, interested parties from other areas can only purchase less than 50 per cent of its shares, so that they are kept at bay.
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