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abour is on course for an “absolutely catastrophic” result in the Hartlepool by-election next month with the Tories ahead by a clear margin, according to a new poll.
A month before the vote, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives are ahead by seven points in a poll commissioned by the Communication Workers Union (CWU), Labour’s fifth-biggest union affiliate.
It predicts Tory candidate Jill Mortimer will take almost half of the vote (49 per cent), with Labour’s candidate Dr Paul Williams polling at 42 per cent — a rise of only four points on the share won by Mike Hill in 2019, according to the Survation survey.
The Conservatives are hoping to snatch the north-east seat from Labour for the first time since 1959.
One saving grace for Sir Keir Starmer’s party is that the survey only has a sample size of 502 respondents in a constituency of more than 70,000.
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However, it will come as a major blow for the Labour leader, who have seen his own favorability ratings among voters plummet in recent months.
Dr Paul Williams, the Labour candidate for Hartlepool
/ Getty ImagesThe Prime Minister is more popular than Sir Keir in Hartlepool, with 49 per cent having a positive opinion of him, compared to just 24 per cent for the Labour leader.
He said: “Working people want the real thing, they want politicians that have a moral backbone, that can tell you what they believe because it’s an integral part of who they are and not because it was approved by a focus group and a handful of the political elite.”
He also said Sir Keir had spent the first year of his leadership “obsessed with telling people that he isn’t Jeremy Corbyn”.
The Labour leader has received criticism from his party’s own MPs and grassroots members following leaks that its electoral strategy will focus on “British values and the union jack”.
Mr Ward added: “Working people want a better lot for themselves and their country. They can’t be won over by a bit of flag waving.”
The by-election takes place one month from today, on May 6, after MP Mike Hill resigned amid an independent investigation into sexual harassment claims made against him.
It is transformative, socialist, policies that voters favour in Hartlepool:
-67% want increased investment in public services
-57% support nationalisation of Royal Mail
-69% support free broadbandAnd yet the Tories are in the lead despite offering none of those things. https://t.co/T7VzyxMWtS
— Jo Grady (@DrJoGrady) April 5, 2021
The potential Labour defeat has been described as “absolutely catastrophic” by the leftwing political commentator Owen Jones.
He said: “If Labour loses Hartlepool, it’s absolutely catastrophic.
“Labour won that seat twice under Corbyn. In 2017 Labour’s vote share not only increased – the party won its biggest majority there since 2001.
“If Labour lose, that defeat has to be owned by the party’s leadership.”
University and College Union (UCU) general secretary Dr Jo Grady also raised concerns that it was “transformative, socialist” policies which helped win previous majorities in the town.
She wrote on Twitter: “It is transformative, socialist, policies that voters favour in Hartlepool.
“67% want increased investment in public services, 57% support nationalisation of Royal Mail, 69% support free broadband. And yet the Tories are in the lead despite offering none of those things.”
Meanwhile, the poll showed the other opposition parties polling very low, with the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform UK all set to take just one per cent of the vote.
The Northern Independent Party, which calls for independence for the north, is placed third on two per cent and said “we’ve spent nothing on this election, yet we are already beating established Westminster parties”.
