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Euro area growth came in at a lower-than-expected 0.1 per cent in the first quarter: disappointing, but still high enough to ensure that a technical recession has been averted.
It is very hard to gauge the strength of the euro area economy at the moment. Purchasing managers indices (PMIs) have been relatively positive, but Barclays economists noted that the first quarter’s lower-than-expected growth “showed that PMI surveys have been quite misleading in predicting actual economic activity”. Sentiment indicators have also been gloomy, showing readings consistent with subdued economic growth.
Things might be about to get worse. According to ING economists, “weaker demand for loans, tighter lending standards and already weak loan growth all point to a weakening of growth momentum in the eurozone economy in the months ahead”. Euro area confidence, inflation, unemployment and manufacturing PMI data is released next week.
Monday 29 May
UK bank holiday
Tuesday 30 May
Euro area: M3 money supply, business climate, consumer industrial and services confidence
Japan: Unemployment, trade balance
UK: BRC shop price index, Nationwide HPI
US: FHFA HPI, consumer confidence, Dallas Fed Index
Wednesday 31 May
China: Manufacturing, non-manufacturing and services PMIs
Japan: Industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, housing starts
UK: Mortgage approvals, net consumer credit, M4 money supply, net lending to individuals
US: Chicago PMI
Thursday 1 June
Euro area: Manufacturing PMI, inflation, core inflation, unemployment
Japan: Manufacturing PMI, auto sales
UK: CIPS Manufacturing PMI
US: ADP employment survey, unit labour costs, productivity, manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending
Friday 2 June
US: Hourly earnings, average workweek, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment
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