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The economic week ahead: 29 May-2 June

Euro area growth came in at a lower-than-expected 0.1 per cent in the first quarter: disappointing, but still high enough to ensure that a technical recession has been averted.

It is very hard to gauge the strength of the euro area economy at the moment. Purchasing managers indices (PMIs) have been relatively positive, but Barclays economists noted that the first quarter’s lower-than-expected growth “showed that PMI surveys have been quite misleading in predicting actual economic activity”. Sentiment indicators have also been gloomy, showing readings consistent with subdued economic growth. 

Things might be about to get worse. According to ING economists, “weaker demand for loans, tighter lending standards and already weak loan growth all point to a weakening of growth momentum in the eurozone economy in the months ahead”. Euro area confidence, inflation, unemployment and manufacturing PMI data is released next week. 


Monday 29 May

UK bank holiday


Tuesday 30 May

Euro area: M3 money supply, business climate, consumer industrial and services confidence

Japan: Unemployment, trade balance 

UK: BRC shop price index, Nationwide HPI

US: FHFA HPI, consumer confidence, Dallas Fed Index 


Wednesday 31 May

China: Manufacturing, non-manufacturing and services PMIs 

Japan: Industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, housing starts 

UK: Mortgage approvals, net consumer credit, M4 money supply, net lending to individuals 

US: Chicago PMI


Thursday 1 June

Euro area: Manufacturing PMI, inflation, core inflation, unemployment 

Japan: Manufacturing PMI, auto sales

UK: CIPS Manufacturing PMI

US: ADP employment survey, unit labour costs, productivity, manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending


Friday 2 June 

US: Hourly earnings, average workweek, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment 

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